The August 2007 issue of Reserve Bank of India Bulletin makes a interesting reading in as much as a robust economy is projected with commendable achievements in almost all sectors be it Agriculture, Industry, Manufacturing, Communication, Service, Banking etc. As per the Reserve Bank of India Bulletin Indian Economy continued robust growth in 2006-2007 for the fourth successive year buoyed by the sustained momentum in the services, manufacturing and other sectors. The Agricultural sector has also shown a sustained growth. The growth in Agricultural sector is mainly due to South West Monsoon which has been satisfactory despite hiatus due to initial delays in its onset over western, north western and central regions. The cumulative rainfall during 2007 season (upto July 07) was 4 percent above normal as compared with 14 percent below normal during the corresponding period of the previous year - Source India Metrological Department. As of July 07 total area of Kharif sown was 1.7 percent higher than that in the corresponding period of 2006. According to the fourth Advances estimate the food grain production during 2006-2007 was 216.1 million tones an increase of 3.6 percent over previous year source - Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. Industrial output has increased more than the expected level in April / May 2007. The Industrial production remained robust during April / May 07. It has clocked a record expansion of 11.7 percent. The manufacturing of sector has shown an impressive growth of 12.7 percent - Source - Central statistical organization. The service sector growth during 2006-2007 has shown a commendable growth in as much as it has contributed 71.5 percent to the overall GDP growth of 9.4 percent - source Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Ministry of Statistics, Programmed Implementation RBI and CMIE. The other sectors which have shown significant growth are Communication, Corporate and Banking. The perceptible growth in other sectors also contributed to a robust economy.
Though our economy is growth oriented it is not a bonanza to the average consumer. The benefits of the growth in economy have not percolated to the common man. There are grey areas which needs the Government's attention. A large portion of the population especially in the rural areas and in towns is well below the poverty line. Unless the Government takes immediate corrective steps to ameliorate their standard of living the average consumer will find it arduous to make both ends meet.
As per the statement of Reserve Bank of India Governor on the First Quarter Review, Review of Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2007-08 and published in the August 2007 issue of Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, Inflation measured by variations in the wholesale price (WPI) on a year-on-basis declined from 5.9 percent at the end of March 07 to 4.4 percent as on 14th July 07. The inflation during August / Sept 07 is reported to have declined further. Though the figures are in consonance with the Finance Ministers expectations it does not augur well with the purchasing power of the average consumer. The average consumer is more concerned with retail prices of commodities rather than whole sale price.
After all he is not going to make purchases in bulk in the whole sale market as many of the commodities like vegetables, eggs, milk, fish, fruits etc. are perishable by nature. Further when the general inflation is reported to be hovering around 3.5 percent the food prices Index is about 8.5 percent. The prices of onions, potato, pulses and even rice and wheat are spiraling upwards. The common man is concerned only with consumer price Index as it gives due weight age for food, fuel, transport, clothing, housing, medical care, education etc. which has a direct impact on him. The Real Estate market is over heated and dreams of owning a house is shattered as the prices have sky rocketed in all cities and even in towns. It is only the affluent class of people and professionals from I.T. Industry purchase flats / house at exorbitant price as their purchasing capacity can withstand the buyers offer. It is not known whether the government has considered the housing cost when computing whole sale price Index. Another aspect which the average consumer is concerned is the medical care. There is no denying the fact that the cost of medicines and hospitalization has spiraled since the last couple of years and the Government has not made any attempt to curb the prices. The premium on Mediclaim policy issued by the Insurance Companies has shot up by 200 percent.
With the increase in prices of all commodities having a direct impact on the average consumer, there is no reason for the Government to gloss over the general inflation which they claim to have pegged. The inflation figures projected by the government are not based on reality check. The significant growth in the economy should have translated into a bonanza for the average consumer by making available the basic necessities at affordable prices.
It is imperative that the government takes appropriate steps at the earliest to evolve a fool proof system for computing the whole sale price Index which should not be in contrast to the Consumer price Index at least with respect to the basic necessities of the average consumer. This in reality will act as the yard stick for measuring the general inflation which otherwise gets camouflaged, by whole sale price Index.
